Will Bitcoin hit $100K in 2026?

Markets put it at roughly 28.9% on 14 October 2026: that is the options-implied chance of Bitcoin trading at $100K before 25 December 2026, and Polymarket's price for the same event is 28.5%. The chance of Bitcoin finishing the year above $100K is lower, 13.5%, because a price can touch a level and fall back. This page reports market prices and is not investment advice.

What does the options market expect Bitcoin to be worth at the end of 2026?

The median implied by Deribit option prices for 25 December 2026 is $84K. The middle 80% of outcomes runs from $66.2K to $102.9K. These are risk-neutral probabilities, which include the premium traders pay for protection, so they are not the same as a forecast.

Why are the touch odds higher than the year-end odds?

Touching $100K at any point before the expiry is easier than being above $100K on the expiry date, because the price can reach the level and then fall back. For a level above today's price, the touch probability is roughly twice the year-end probability.

Why can options and Polymarket disagree?

They are different markets with different traders, fees and capital requirements. In June 2026, Castle Labs and Block Scholes found Polymarket's touch market at 14.5% while the options surface gave 10.5%, a gap our report on onchain options discusses alongside one-day BTC binaries on Kalshi, Polymarket and Hyperliquid.

How are these probabilities calculated?

From Deribit's BTC option marks for the last expiry of the year. We fit a smooth volatility smile across strikes, read the probability of finishing above $100K from the slope of call prices, and estimate the touch probability with the reflection principle at the $100K implied volatility. The Polymarket figure is the price of the Yes share in its market on Bitcoin reaching $100K this year. Refreshed every day.

Live data · updated daily

Bitcoin $100K Odds

Will Bitcoin reach $100K this year? The odds priced by Deribit options and by Polymarket, side by side, and the price range the options market implies for 25 December 2026. Refreshed every day.

Short answer

As of 14 October 2026, Deribit options imply a 28.9% chance that Bitcoin trades at $100K at some point before 25 December 2026, and a 13.5% chance it is above $100K on that date. Polymarket prices a 28.5% chance that Bitcoin reaches $100K in 2026.

The options market's median for Bitcoin on 25 December 2026 is $84K, against $83.4K today, with a 10% chance it is below $66.2K and a 10% chance it is above $102.9K. These are market prices, not forecasts.

Options: touches $100K: 28.9%
Options: above $100K on 25 December 2026: 13.5%
Polymarket: reaches $100K: 28.5%

BTC Market-Implied Probability Cone to Year-End

Daily BTC index, then percentiles implied by Deribit options at each expiry to 25 Dec 2026

BTC spot
90th pctl
75th pctl
Implied median
25th pctl
10th pctl

Source: Deribit · Data to 14 Oct 2026 · Updated daily

View the data

Date	BTC spot	90th pctl	75th pctl	Implied median	25th pctl	10th pctl
7 Oct 2026	$84.21K	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
8 Oct 2026	$83.04K	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
9 Oct 2026	$82.49K	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
10 Oct 2026	$82.67K	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
11 Oct 2026	$82.95K	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
12 Oct 2026	$83.91K	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
13 Oct 2026	$83.83K	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
14 Oct 2026	$83.36K	$83.36K	$83.36K	$83.36K	$83.36K	$83.36K
23 Oct 2026	n/a	$89.21K	$86.48K	$83.61K	$80.7K	$77.85K
30 Oct 2026	n/a	$91.34K	$87.82K	$83.94K	$79.81K	$75.57K
27 Nov 2026	n/a	$97.57K	$90.72K	$83.88K	$77.19K	$70.76K
25 Dec 2026	n/a	$103K	$93.46K	$83.97K	$74.78K	$66.17K

Chance BTC Reaches $100K by Year-End: Options vs Polymarket

Today's implied chance of BTC above $100K at the 2026 year-end Deribit expiry, touching it before then, and Polymarket's touch market

Source: Deribit, Polymarket · Data to 14 Oct 2026 · Updated daily

View the data

	Probability
Options surface, terminal	13.5%
Options surface, one-touch	28.9%
Polymarket, one-touch	28.5%

From the report

The Renaissance of Onchain Options

Options volume exceeded futures by more than four times in 2024. With Block Scholes, our July 2026 report maps onchain options after DOVs: order books, AMMs, perpetual options and the one-day BTC binaries that now trade on Kalshi, Polymarket and Hyperliquid.

Read the Report

Questions and Method

Will Bitcoin hit $100K in 2026?: Markets put it at roughly 28.9% on 14 October 2026: that is the options-implied chance of Bitcoin trading at $100K before 25 December 2026, and Polymarket's price for the same event is 28.5%. The chance of Bitcoin finishing the year above $100K is lower, 13.5%, because a price can touch a level and fall back. This page reports market prices and is not investment advice.
What does the options market expect Bitcoin to be worth at the end of 2026?: The median implied by Deribit option prices for 25 December 2026 is $84K. The middle 80% of outcomes runs from $66.2K to $102.9K. These are risk-neutral probabilities, which include the premium traders pay for protection, so they are not the same as a forecast.
Why are the touch odds higher than the year-end odds?: Touching $100K at any point before the expiry is easier than being above $100K on the expiry date, because the price can reach the level and then fall back. For a level above today's price, the touch probability is roughly twice the year-end probability.
Why can options and Polymarket disagree?: They are different markets with different traders, fees and capital requirements. In June 2026, Castle Labs and Block Scholes found Polymarket's touch market at 14.5% while the options surface gave 10.5%, a gap our report on onchain options discusses alongside one-day BTC binaries on Kalshi, Polymarket and Hyperliquid.
How are these probabilities calculated?: From Deribit's BTC option marks for the last expiry of the year. We fit a smooth volatility smile across strikes, read the probability of finishing above $100K from the slope of call prices, and estimate the touch probability with the reflection principle at the $100K implied volatility. The Polymarket figure is the price of the Yes share in its market on Bitcoin reaching $100K this year. Refreshed every day.

Raw data, refreshed daily: renaissance-of-onchain-options.json. Free to cite with a link to this page.

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